On the back of the unprecedented scare of the Covid pandemic we could have all done with a break before a war came along, but we are where we are. The war in Ukraine is not unprecedented and so in financial terms we have less guess work in play than we did back in 2020.

But of course, no one is feeling good about it as it is a terrible tragedy brought about for reasons that may never be fully clear. So we all feel uneasy which is natural I think, as the effects of the crisis have been in human terms disastrous and also fairly pronounced as stock markets have fallen indiscriminately. This fall will be felt across almost all investments within your portfolio.

Its doubly troubling as this is a war on mainland Europe and so easier for us to feel, than say a war in a desert country far away.

Financially this is bad news, as falls always are temporarily, but in reality, we are now looking at say 3% a year over the last 5 years for clients rather than 5% a year over the last five years. I have rounded the numbers but not by a lot. So as an example, spot valuations like this in bad markets tend to calm people down. A simple question would be, ‘how bad in reality would a 3% average return be given the Pandemic and war in Ukraine?’ Ask this question and then consider the world is at one of its most uncertain points due to the back-to-back challenges we have seen.

If we were chatting at the office now this is the type of thing we would be discussing.

Things may well get worse before recovery and making sense of the after effects of this crisis.

Moving on to the experts. Our chosen investment managers favour high quality companies they believe will continue to outperform over the long-term. Whilst these may have fallen in price in the short term, the fundamentals of these businesses remain strong. So, it’s as I said in the last communication, changing but predictable.

Overall I would advise people not to panic or short sell, consider in most cases you are investing for the rest of your lives. On your behalf please be reassured that we are monitoring this situation closely and are keeping a close eye on events as they unfold, their impact on markets and subsequently, your portfolio. Given what we do know, we recognise the need to remain calm and focus on the benefits of a medium to long-term approach to investing whilst managing short-term volatility. If there are any further developments, we’ll be sure to update you all.

As always, please don’t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or issues.